Command in Chaos: Leadership Lessons from Fog-of-War Situations
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Series: Boardrooms · Battlefields · Boxing
By David Ribott, Founder of Ribott Partners
“In theory, the plan was perfect. On the ground, nothing went as expected. And yet — the best leaders moved anyway.”
Every leadership team I’ve worked with eventually faces the fog — a moment when information is patchy, pressure is high, and the consequences of stalling are just as dangerous as the risks of acting.
We like to think of strategy as a neat, cascading sequence. But real leadership looks more like a battlefield at dusk: limited visibility, unpredictable terrain, and high emotional stakes.
This blog post is about how to lead when clarity is absent, urgency is real, and every option feels uncertain.
The Fog of War Is Not Just a Military Metaphor
In military history, the “fog of war” describes the uncertainty leaders face during combat — limited intel, fragmented communication, and decisions made under duress.
In leadership, we see the same fog in:
- M&A integration confusion
- Sudden CEO exits
- Regulatory shocks or reputational crises
- Geopolitical or economic volatility
- Rapid-fire team turnover
The difference? In the boardroom, nobody wears a uniform. The lines of command are blurry. And the battlefield is invisible — but no less real.
Why Most Leaders Freeze (and How the Best Respond)
Under fog-of-war conditions, most teams default to one of three failure modes:
- Paralysis by Consensus
Everyone waits to agree before anyone moves. But in complexity, waiting for perfect agreement is a luxury you don’t have. - Action Without Alignment
One faction moves aggressively, leaving the rest behind. The organization splinters further in the process. - Escalation of Commitment
Leaders double down on a failing course of action because admitting uncertainty feels like weakness.
But the most effective leaders? They operate with what I call Calibrated Decisiveness.
Calibrated Decisiveness: How to Lead in Uncertainty
Calibrated decisiveness means making directional bets while preserving the ability to adapt. It's not about knowing everything. It's about moving with confidence even when certainty is low.
Here’s how I coach leaders to do it:
1. Frame the Unknowns — and Act Anyway
Acknowledge what you don’t know. Then name what you do know — and move based on that.
- What can’t we know yet?
- What assumptions must we test?
- What is safe to try?
When leaders model clarity about uncertainty, it paradoxically builds trust.
2. Shorten the Decision Horizon
In the fog, trying to make six-month decisions is dangerous. Move the horizon closer:
- 10-day alignment cycles
- 30-day experiments
- Real-time check-ins after every major move
This builds momentum without locking in fragile assumptions.
3. Assign Battlefield Roles
Even in a corporate crisis, clarity around who leads what is critical.
One person frames the message.
Another runs tactical operations.
A third watches for unintended consequences.
Decentralized clarity beats centralized confusion.
Boardrooms, Battlefields, and Boxing Rings
Boxers know this: You can train all you want — but once you take that first punch, everything changes.
The question is not whether chaos will hit your team. It’s:
- Will your team freeze or move?
- Will your board debate or decide?
- Will you lead from conviction or wait for consensus?
Tools I Use with Clients in the Fog
Here’s how I work with CEOs, boards, and executive teams when they’re operating under pressure:
1. The “What Now, What Next” Drill
A 2-part strategic reset tool:
- What must we stabilize now?
- What are the next two directional bets we can make?
No whiteboards. No theory. Just pressure-tested action sequencing.
2. Heat Mapping Decision Risk
We visually map:
- What’s urgent but unclear
- What’s clear but low priority
- Where misalignment poses the biggest risk
Boards respond well to this because it makes ambiguity visible — and navigable.
3. Decision Rehearsals
Before public announcements, CEO pivots, or stakeholder conversations, we run war-room-style rehearsals:
- How will different audiences interpret this?
- What unspoken resistance might we face?
- What’s the one line we must deliver with certainty?
A Real Example
A regional holding group I worked with was undergoing a major restructuring — multiple BU heads resigning, regulatory uncertainty, and a massive dip in team morale.
The CEO was paralyzed, trying to build consensus before acting.
We reframed the challenge using Calibrated Decisiveness:
- Identified two 30-day priorities (staff retention and regulator re-alignment)
- Clarified roles on the exec team to lead each domain
- Launched a daily 10-minute alignment call to maintain adaptive execution
The fog didn’t lift immediately. But the team moved. And that movement restored confidence across the system.
Final Thought
In chaos, the enemy isn’t just external — it’s hesitation.
Leaders don’t need certainty to act. They need conviction and clarity about what’s next.
Because leadership isn’t defined by the plan you write when things are calm — it’s revealed in the choices you make when the map no longer matches the terrain.
If this hit home, share it with a colleague navigating leadership under pressure. And follow along — next up:
“Leading with Your Chin: The Value of Taking the First Hit”
#Leadership #CEO #Boardroom #BoardroomsBattlefieldsBoxing #StrategyUnderFire #ExecutiveCoach #RibottPartners
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